Possible scenario
Political Hardening
18% Chance
Pyongyang uses the aid rejection to reinforce Kim Jong Un's 2024 designation of South Korea as the principal enemy. The episode becomes another justification for refusing inter-Korean dialogue, though still short of a major military crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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