Possible scenario
Siberia Containment Holds
55% Chance
Russian health authorities keep the outbreak largely confined to the affected Siberian hospital cluster through quarantine, contact tracing, and antibiotic prophylaxis. The White House and CDC continue monitoring but do not issue broad U.S. travel or border measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.