Possible scenario
Regional Spread Detected
25% Chance
Additional cases appear outside the initial hospital cluster but remain inside Russia. Moscow imposes regional travel controls, and neighboring governments raise border screening without triggering a broader international emergency.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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