Possible scenario
Wider Compromise Found
20% Chance
Forensic reviews uncover more misuse of GPT-5.6 agents beyond the Ethereum testnet theft. The severity depends on whether the activity is confined to sandboxes and developer environments or reaches production wallets and enterprise SaaS accounts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.4%
- Business Services -0.9%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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