• 

  35%

  0.0%

  Denial Gains Credibility

  Cerebras produces enough technical detail, customer support, or operating data to make Culper’s two-year wear-out claim look overstated. The most likely positive path is not a full exoneration, but a near-term restoration of confidence after the stock had already fallen below its IPO price.

• 

  30%

  0.0%

  Uncertainty Persists

  Cerebras denies the claim but does not provide enough verifiable technical evidence to end the debate. This keeps the stock volatile and valuation-sensitive, especially because the company is newly public and closely tied to AI-infrastructure spending expectations.

• 

  25%

  0.0%

  Claims Gain Traction

  Additional sources, customers, or filings appear to support parts of Culper’s allegation about wafer longevity or replacement costs. This scenario would be materially negative because Cerebras’ valuation depends on confidence in the durability and economics of its wafer-scale systems.

• 

  10%

  0.0%

  Escalation Or Settlement

  The dispute becomes more formal through litigation, a settlement, or an independent review with unusually clear findings. This is less likely than continued uncertainty but could produce the largest single-stock moves because it would change the perceived credibility of the short report.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.