Possible scenario
Crackdown Becomes Routine
45% Chance
Memphis leaders treat the 37% murder decline as evidence that the federal-state-local crackdown is working. Mayor Paul Young, the Memphis Police Department, Shelby County prosecutors, and federal agencies keep the joint task-force model in place while trying to reduce the political risk of mass arrests.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.