Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
15% Chance
Polish investigators conclude the drone landed or exploded inside Ukraine, close to the border, or that fragments did not pose an immediate threat to Polish territory. NATO keeps monitoring but avoids further military steps, allowing risk sentiment to recover.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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