Possible scenario
Contained NATO Air Policing
45% Chance
Poland keeps preemptive airspace operations active along the Belarus and Ukraine borders, while NATO reinforces surveillance and fighter rotations. Russia denies intent to target NATO territory, and the incident remains below the threshold for a direct military clash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.