Possible scenario
Prosecutions Expand
35% Chance
The Justice Department treats the 16 arrests as part of a broader national enforcement push, using DHS case referrals and the restored citizenship-check database to bring more individual illegal-voting cases. Prosecutors avoid relying solely on the statute recently voided by a federal judge and instead charge false statements, document fraud, and state-law referral cases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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