Possible scenario
Limited Government Gains
40% Chance
The Presidential Leadership Council and allied units make incremental gains in Houthi-held areas, especially around Marib, Jawf, and approaches to Sanaa, but do not break Houthi command structures. Saudi Arabia provides intelligence, air defense, and logistics while avoiding a full re-entry into a ground war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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