Possible scenario
Limited Strike Cycle
42% Chance
Ukraine continues calibrated drone attacks on Russian refining assets, but neither side moves immediately to a broader strategic escalation. Markets treat the Ryazan outage as a localized Russian product-supply disruption rather than a global crude-supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- VLO+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.