Possible scenario
Energy Truce Talks
24% Chance
Zelenskyy keeps the energy-strike moratorium proposal alive but ties it to Western missile decisions and Russian reciprocity. This creates a narrow path for de-escalation, though verification and trust remain weak.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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