Radiological Escalation
−1.6%
The iodine story proves connected to an actual safety incident, a strike-related release risk, or a serious warning from Iranian emergency authorities. This is the least likely but highest-impact branch, especially if radiation reports intersect with oil-shipping risk in the Gulf.
What it moves
- Energy+5.2%
- Consumer Services−5.0%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.