Limited Refinery Disruption

Russia contains the operational damage at its largest refinery and uses inventories, crude rerouting, and temporary import substitutions to avoid a major refined-products squeeze. This is the most likely path because Russia has already adapted to repeated Ukrainian strikes with repairs, air-defense redeployment, and logistical workarounds.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.