Possible scenario
Deep-Strike Campaign Expands
30% Chance
Kyiv treats the successful long-range strike as proof that Russia’s deeper energy infrastructure is vulnerable and follows with more drone attacks on refineries, depots, and pumping stations. The market begins pricing a higher probability that Russian refined-product output is structurally impaired through the winter.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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