Possible scenario
Reconstruction Strains Budget
25% Chance
Damage estimates remain near the upper end of early USGS loss projections, forcing Panama to seek emergency budget support from the United States, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the World Bank. The canal still functions, but fiscal pressure rises and insurers begin quantifying large property and infrastructure claims.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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