Possible scenario
Canal Delays Emerge
20% Chance
Although the canal is not breached, engineers impose temporary safety checks, draft limits, or lock-by-lock inspections after discovering noncritical damage. Delays are manageable but significant enough to affect container, LNG, and refined-products shipping schedules.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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