Possible scenario
Tougher Federal Oversight
24% Chance
The administration leans into the June 2026 oversight order and uses the CEO meeting to demand stronger federal visibility into advanced model training, compute clusters, and national-security risks. This outcome would disappoint investors expecting only deregulation, but it would still avoid a crisis-level market reaction.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Tickers
- META-1.8%
- GOOG-1.6%
- -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.