Possible scenario
Chips Policy Bargain
21% Chance
The meeting shifts from domestic regulation to AI-chip supply, export controls, and U.S. data-center capacity. Trump is likely to press semiconductor CEOs for investment commitments and tighter alignment with national-security policy in exchange for permitting, power, and procurement support.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- INTC+1.3%
- NVDA-1.1%
- AMD-0.9%
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.