Possible scenario
Cap Holds
42% Chance
The European Commission implements the 350,000-unit annual cap largely as announced, using import licences and customs monitoring to manage Chinese hybrid shipments. This is the base case because it follows directly from the EU's post-WTO compromise while giving European automakers visible protection after 2035 hybrid allowances.
Tickers
- STLA+1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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