Possible scenario
Rehearing Granted
27% Chance
The Sixth Circuit could decide that the new CFTC proposal materially affects the legal framing of event contracts. That would give Kalshi a second chance to challenge the ruling and could temporarily improve the outlook for regulated prediction markets.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
Tickers
- IBKR+0.6%
- HOOD+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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