Possible scenario
Persistent Grey-Zone Pressure
28% Chance
Russia and Iran continue harassment, cyber probing, intimidation of dissidents, and sabotage planning without a mass-casualty incident. This keeps security agencies on alert but remains below the threshold that would materially reprice global risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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