Possible scenario
Major Incident Materializes
18% Chance
A hostile network succeeds in carrying out a visible attack or disruption in the UK or allied Europe. This is less likely than continued disruption and arrests, but the recent Fairford and journalist-threat timeline makes it a credible tail scenario.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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