Possible scenario
Stable Sharara Restart
50% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Libya's National Oil Corporation keeps the Sharara pipeline open after a local arrangement with the armed group or community actors behind the blockade. Output lost since September 21 is gradually recovered, reducing a small but visible supply-risk premium in Brent.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- TTE+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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