Possible scenario
Targeted Sanctions Hold
45% Chance
The Trump administration keeps the new measures focused on ICC personnel and entities tied to Gaza-related investigations, rather than a broad campaign against allied governments. European states and the UN condemn the move, but banks receive enough OFAC guidance to avoid a wider payments disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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