Possible scenario
Measures Are Narrowed
20% Chance
Diplomatic pressure from allies, South Africa, Chile, Mexico, and UN officials leads Washington to narrow the sanctions package. Trump maintains a hard public line on the ICC, but Treasury carves out enough exceptions to reduce operational damage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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