Scenario description
Assume that, by the resolution date, the late-September bitcoin rebound reverses as ETF-holder profit-taking, weaker risk appetite, or fading macro-rate relief overwhelms institutional demand. The initiating change is observed market stress rather than a forecast: bitcoin breaks below the cited $80,000 area after Sept. 30 and fails to regain the late-September breakout zone by the cutoff, or U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs swing to a cumulative net outflow over the observation window while price remains below $84,000 at the cutoff. The geography and entities are bitcoin spot markets and U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs; exact future outflow amounts, leverage liquidation volumes and treasury-sale volumes are unavailable and should not be invented.