Scenario description
Assume that, by the resolution date, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and disclosed corporate treasury buyers convert the late-September demand impulse into a sustained bid for bitcoin. The initiating change is not merely bullish commentary: spot bitcoin trades materially above the recent $85,000 area and records a new post-Sept. 30, 2026 high above $96,700, while U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs show net inflows over the observation window. Reported corporate treasury accumulation, if available, may corroborate the demand channel, but is not required unless ETF-flow data are unavailable. The geography and entities are U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs and public or tracked corporate treasury holders such as Strive and Strategy; precise future daily ETF volumes and additional treasury purchase sizes are unavailable and should be observed rather than assumed.