Possible scenario
Israeli Damage Control
27% Chance
Israel may try to contain the diplomatic fallout by publicly condemning the attack and assigning responsibility to security agencies. This path is plausible because Israel has strong incentives to avoid a deeper break with Europe while already facing pressure over settlement expansion and settler violence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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