Possible scenario
Diplomatic Rift Deepens
20% Chance
If the Israeli response appears slow or dismissive, several European governments could escalate beyond statements and sanctions. This would deepen the existing dispute over settlement expansion and settlement trade, though it would still likely remain below a systemic market event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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