Possible scenario
Selective Strikes Continue
40% Chance
Ukraine continues drone attacks on Russian fuel storage and refining infrastructure while avoiding a dramatic escalation against the largest export terminals. Trump publicly criticizes the campaign but does not immediately cut intelligence sharing or weapons deliveries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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