Possible scenario
Partial Targeting Deal
25% Chance
Kyiv tries to preserve U.S. political support by narrowing its public targeting doctrine without fully abandoning attacks on Russian energy logistics. Washington claims influence, while Ukraine keeps pressure on fuel assets tied to the war effort.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
Tickers
- XOM-0.2%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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