Possible scenario
Local Quarantine Widens
15% Chance
Additional suspected contacts or inconclusive tests lead authorities to widen medical quarantines in Irkutsk, while still denying sustained transmission. The market impact remains small because restrictions are local and do not materially affect national energy, metals, or transport flows.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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