Possible scenario
Rolling Grid Disruptions
30%
−0.1%
The outage proves harder to isolate, or follow-on Ukrainian drone and sabotage attempts target substations, switching equipment, and railway control systems. The result is a rolling disruption rather than a single stoppage, forcing Russia to use diesel locomotives, road convoys, and less efficient routes.
What it moves
- Industrials+0.2%
- Market volatility
- Oil prices
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.