Possible scenario
Interceptions Contain Escalation
40% Chance
Saudi air defenses continue to intercept most incoming Houthi ballistic missiles and drones, preventing major casualties or infrastructure damage. Riyadh keeps oil exports flowing while increasing air-defense readiness and diplomatic messaging.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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