Possible scenario
Energy Assets Hit
20% Chance
A missile or drone bypasses Saudi defenses and damages oil-processing, refining, export, or power infrastructure. Even a short operational disruption would likely lift crude prices and increase risk premia across Gulf-exposed assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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