Possible scenario
Contained Recall Case
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Home Office recall remains a contained counterterrorism supervision case. Police and probation services treat the Iraq bombmaking history as a high-risk factor, but no new operational plot is established.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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