Possible scenario
Russia Adapts Routes
28% Chance
Russia responds by rerouting cargoes through non-Western intermediaries, renaming vessels, using ship-to-ship transfers and relying on Chinese, Emirati and Indian trading channels. This preserves much of the export flow but raises transaction costs and compliance risks.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.