Possible scenario
Retaliation Risk Rises
18% Chance
Moscow answers the UK package with legal and commercial pressure on British-linked shipping, insurance and energy-service interests. The most likely version is limited retaliation, but markets watch for any interference with Baltic or Arctic navigation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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