Possible scenario
Repeat Shadowing Campaign
30% Chance
Russia repeats close approaches or keeps Cosmos 2612 near the U.S. asset to signal that commercial and government satellites supporting Ukraine remain vulnerable. The pattern stays below the threshold of kinetic conflict but raises the perceived risk premium for LEO operators.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
- Telecommunications -1.0%
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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