Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
45% Chance
Russia allows Cosmos 2612 to drift away and avoids another ultra-close pass in the next several days. Washington protests through military and diplomatic channels, but the episode remains a coercive signal rather than an operational attack.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- PL+0.5%
- VSAT+0.4%
- NOC+0.3%
- LHX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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