Possible scenario
Scaled Congressional Deal
38% Chance
Congress is most likely to reduce the $1.58 trillion headline cost through income limits, lower payment amounts, or delayed implementation. Senate Republicans focused on deficits and reconciliation rules would probably insist on offsets before allowing a floor vote.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.4%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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