Possible scenario
Plan Stalls
27% Chance
The plan could fail because its cost dwarfs annual tariff collections and would require new borrowing or major offsets. A coalition of Senate fiscal conservatives, Democrats, and procedural objections could stop the proposal before enactment.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Utilities +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.