Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the CIA warning prompts visible NATO, EU, and Turkish maritime surveillance, making a merchant-ship drone launch too risky for Moscow. Russia preserves ambiguity while continuing drone pressure through established land and Black Sea routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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