Possible scenario
Interdiction And Sanctions
20% Chance
Rather than waiting for an attack, NATO and EU states move to disrupt suspected launch platforms and logistics nodes. This produces a sanctions-and-enforcement cycle against Russian shadow-fleet vessels, insurers, managers, and port facilitators.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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