From todayParaguay Prosecutors Add Criminal Conspiracy Charge Against Ousted President Peña in Ueno Bank Collapse

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  40%

  −0.1%

  Case Broadens Methodically

  The most likely path is a continued legal escalation against Santiago Peña and former officials, while courts keep the case within ordinary criminal procedure. The Attorney General’s Office uses the conspiracy charge to widen interviews, preserve evidence, and trace Ueno-linked state deposits without triggering a broader institutional rupture.

  Finance −0.2%

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  25%

  +0.1%

  Orderly Stabilization

  The acting administration under Pedro Alliana and the Central Bank of Paraguay manage to separate the criminal case from the banking resolution. Depositor payments, asset sales, and international technical support reduce the risk that Ueno’s collapse spreads to other Paraguayan lenders.

  Finance +0.2%

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  20%

  −0.2%

  Political Crisis Deepens

  Peña’s allies portray the conspiracy charge as politically motivated and challenge the impeachment process or detention order. Street protests, congressional obstruction, and pressure on prosecutors increase uncertainty around both the criminal case and the bank resolution.

  Finance −0.5%

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  15%

  0.0%

  Prosecution Falters

  A less likely outcome is that courts find the new conspiracy charge too broad or procedurally weak. Peña may remain exposed to other criminal counts, but a partial legal reversal would complicate the narrative that prosecutors have a coordinated corruption case tied to Ueno’s collapse.