Possible scenario
Indian Counterposture
25% Chance
India responds with visible but non-kinetic countermeasures, including air-defense readiness checks, missile tracking exercises, or announcements about indigenous systems. The response raises regional tension but remains below the threshold of direct military action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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