Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
18% Chance
The United States, China, and Gulf partners privately press Islamabad and New Delhi to keep the missile episode contained. The test remains politically sensitive, but outside diplomacy reduces the likelihood of a new India-Pakistan military crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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