Possible scenario
Omani Balancing Continues
22% Chance
Oman accepts UAE security concerns but avoids binding commitments that would damage its mediator role with Tehran. This outcome fits Muscat's long-standing preference for neutrality and quiet crisis management.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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