Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
38% Chance
Oman uses Sheikh Tahnoun's visit to align quietly with Abu Dhabi on a maritime deconfliction channel with Tehran. This is the most likely path because Muscat has already been negotiating Hormuz navigation security with Iran and remains trusted by both sides.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.